Towards a grand deal on subsidies and climate change

Recent studies have identified public subsidies as a principal cause of unsustainable development. Worldwide, governments are spending up to $U950 billion a year on subsidies. Many of these public subsidies fail to serve their purpose and in fact, often turn out as policy failures as they further distort trade and cause environmental harm. The energy sector is among the most subsidized sectors in the world, receiving over $U240 billion per annum of public subsidies. This article highlights current energy subsidies and their implications. The article examines: (i) the global size and distribution of energy subsidies in industrialized and developing countries; (ii) the impact of these subsidies on the economy, equity and the environment and their role as barriers for sustainable development; (iii) the political economy behind public subsidies and the various political and institutional barriers and lock-in mechanisms that cause subsidies to become entrenched in economic and public structures; and (iv) proposals for effective subsidy reform in energy policies, suggesting a global strategy to eliminate energy subsidies. OECD governments are in a position to take the lead, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change presents an excellent opportunity of striking a political grand deal and linking the reform of energy subsidies to a meaningful participation of developing countries to the Kyoto Protocol. Moreover, if sinks are to be included in the clean development mechanism (CDM), it is crucial to include the removal of forestry subsidies in the grand deal.     

Population feedback after successful invasion leads to ecological suicide in seasonal environments

For most consumer species, winter represents a period of harsh food conditions in addition to the physiological strain that results from the low ambient temperatures. In size-structured populations, larger-bodied individuals do better during winter as they have larger energy reserves to buffer starvation periods. In contrast, smaller-bodied individuals do better under growing conditions, as they have lower maintenance costs. We study how the interplay between size-dependent life-history processes and seasonal changes in temperature and food availability shape the long-term dynamics of a size-structured consumer population and its unstructured resource. We show that the size dependence of maintenance requirements translates into a minimum body size that is needed for surviving starvation when consumers can adapt only to a limited extent to the low food densities in winter. This size threshold can lead to population extinction because adult individuals suffer only a little during winter and hence produce large numbers of offspring. Due to population feedback on the resource and intense intra-cohort competition, newborn consumers then fail to reach the size threshold for survival. Under these conditions, small numbers of individuals can survive, increase in density, and build up a population, which will subsequently go extinct due to its feedback on the resource. High juvenile mortality may prevent this ecological suicide from occurring, as it releases resource competition among newborns and speeds up their growth. In size-structured populations, annual fluctuations in temperature and food availability may thus lead to a conflict between individual fitness and population persistence.     

UVR-induced photoinhibition of summer marine phytoplankton communities from Patagonia

During austral summer 2006, experiments were carried out to evaluate the effects of ultraviolet radiation (UVR, 280–400 nm) on carbon fixation of natural phytoplankton assemblages from Patagonia (Argentina). Surface water samples were collected (ca. 100 m offshore) at mid morning using an acid-cleaned (1 N HCl) dark container. The short-term impact of UVR (measured as radiocarbon incorporation) was immediately assessed by exposing samples to three artificial illumination treatments: PAR (400–700 nm), PAR + UV-A (320–700 nm), and PAR + UV-A + UV-B (280–700 nm). Pico-nanoplankton characterized the assemblages, and taxon-specific pigment fingerprinting combined with CHEMTAX and supplemented with microscopic observations showed varied proportions of diatoms, chlorophytes, and cyanobacteria throughout January–February 2006. Photosynthetic efficiency, as assessed through assimilation numbers, was high [between 4.4 and 10.4 μg C (μg chl-a)⁻¹ h⁻¹], and it was probably favored by the supply of inorganic nutrients from the Chubut River. UVR-induced photoinhibition appeared to be related to the taxonomic composition: in general, higher photoinhibition was observed when diatoms dominated, whereas this was lower when samples were dominated by chlorophytes. Our data suggest that xanthophyll pigments might have provided only limited protection in these already highlighted acclimated assemblages.     

ANAFORE: A stand-scale process-based forest model that includes wood tissue development and labile carbon storage in trees

A stand-scale forest model has been developed that dynamically simulates, besides carbon (C) and water (H₂O) fluxes, wood tissue development from physiological principles. The forest stand is described as consisting of trees of different size cohorts (for example, dominant, co-dominant and suppressed trees), either of the same or of different species (deciduous or coniferous). Half-hourly C and H₂O fluxes are modeled at the leaf, tree and stand level. In addition to total growth and yield, the model simulates the daily evolution of tracheid or vessel biomass and radius, parenchyma and branch development. From these data early and latewood biomass, wood tissue composition and density are calculated. Simulation of the labile C stored in the living tissues allows for simulation of trans-seasonal and trans-yearly effects, and improved simulations of long-term effects of environmental stresses on growth. A sensitivity analysis was performed to indicate the main parameters influencing simulated stem growth and wood quality at the tree and stand level. Case studies were performed for a temperate pine forest to illustrate the main model functioning and, more in particular, the simulation of the wood quality. The results indicate that the ANAFORE model is a useful tool for simultaneous analyses of wood quality development and forest ecosystem functioning.     

Rates of Movement of Threatened Bird Species between IUCN Red List Categories and toward Extinction

Abstract:  In recent centuries bird species have been deteriorating in status and becoming extinct at a rate that may be 2–3 orders of magnitude higher than in prehuman times. We examined extinction rates of bird species designated critically endangered in 1994 and the rate at which species have moved through the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List categories of extinction risk globally for the period 1988–2004 and regionally in Australia from 1750 to 2000. For Australia we drew on historical accounts of the extent and condition of species habitats, spread of invasive species, and changes in sighting frequencies. These data sets permitted comparison of observed rates of movement through the IUCN Red List categories with novel predictions based on the IUCN Red List criterion E, which relates to explicit extinction probabilities determined, for example, by population viability analysis. The comparison also tested whether species listed on the basis of other criteria face a similar probability of moving to a higher threat category as those listed under criterion E. For the rate at which species moved from vulnerable to endangered, there was a good match between observations and predictions, both worldwide and in Australia. Nevertheless, species have become extinct at a rate that, although historically high, is 2 (Australia) to 10 (globally) times lower than predicted. Although the extinction probability associated with the critically endangered category may be too high, the shortfall in realized extinctions can also be attributed to the beneficial impact of conservation intervention. These efforts may have reduced the number of global extinctions from 19 to 3 and substantially slowed the extinction trajectory of 33 additional critically endangered species. Our results suggest that current conservation action benefits species on the brink of extinction, but is less targeted at or has less effect on moderately threatened species.     

Metacommunity structure of pond macroinvertebrates: effects of dispersal mode and generation time

A recent challenge in community ecology is to understand under what conditions local and regional processes may be more important in shaping community structure. We investigated the role of dispersal mode and generation time for communities of macroinvertebrates in two sets of connected ponds during three consecutive years. We found no evidence that generation time affected metacommunity structure, possibly because statistical power was limited because the range of generation times present was small. In contrast, we found that the spatial structure of the macroinvertebrate metacommunities differed with dispersal mode in one of two sets of ponds. Passive dispersers showed positive distance-dissimilarity correlations, suggesting mass effects via the pond connections. These correlations did not stretch beyond the first pond downstream suggesting that, in this chain of connected ponds, intervening ponds effectively buffered dispersal. Active dispersers did not show any consistent spatial pattern, possibly because intensive over-land dispersal homogenized the metacommunity. Thus, although pond connections probably equally promoted dispersal of actively and passively dispersing macroinvertebrates, the implications for the structure of their metacommunities may depend on their dispersal mode. We conclude that dispersal mode has the potential to affect the mechanisms that are integral to metacommunity structure.     

The impact on tropospheric ozone formation on the implementation of a program for mobile emissions control: a case study in São Paulo,Brazil

The main sources of reactive hydrocarbons (RHC) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), ozone precursors, in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) in the southeast of Brazil are emissions from vehicles fleets. Ambient surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations are air quality problem in the MASP. This study examined the impact that implementing a control program for mobile emissions has on ozone concentrations, An episode of high surface ozone concentrations occurring in the MASP during the March 13–15, 2000 period was used as a case study that was modeled for photochemical oxidants using the California Institute of Technology/Carnegie Mellon University three-dimensional photochemical model. Different scenarios were analyzed in relationship to the implementation of the Programa Nacional de Controle de Poluição por Veículos Automotores (PROCONVE, National Program to Control Motor Vehicle Pollution). Scenario 1 assumed that all vehicles were operating within PROCONVE guidelines. Scenarios 2 and 3 considered hypothetical situations in which the PROCONVE was not implemented. Scenario 2 set the premise that vehicles were using pre-1989 technology, whereas scenario 3 allowed for technological advances. A base case scenario, in which the official emission inventory for the year 2000 was employed, was also analyzed. The CIT model results show agreement with most measurements collected during 13–15 March 2000 modeling episode. Mean normalized bias for ozone, CO, RHC and NO _x are approximately 9.0, 6.0, ?8.3, 13.0%, respectively. Tropospheric ozone concentrations predicted for scenario 2 were higher than those predicted for scenarios 1, 3 and base case. This study makes a significant contribution to the evaluation of air quality improvement and provides data for use in evaluating the economic costs of implementing a program of motor vehicle pollution control aimed at protecting human health.